Humanity is currently concerned about the warming of the climate observed in recent decades as so many obvious changes are already happening. This phenomenon is being linked to other less obvious phenomena such as the increased number of earthquakes, the activation of volcanoes, the intensification of winds, rains, and floods, as well as the idea of the end of the world. But even weather forecasters do not forecast the temperature for more than five days, so how it might be possible to forecast such natural forces as earthquakes and tornadoes? To predict such phenomena, it is necessary to know their causes and regularities, and it is necessary to look back at the past.
Reasons of Climate Change
The climate is influenced by many other factors that are connected. All these factors can be divided into some groups according to intensity and duration.
The first group of factors are the intensity of solar radiation that has been increasing since its formation 5 billion years ago. This group also includes long-term changes in the composition of the atmosphere. The primary atmosphere contained much more carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases now. An important factor is also the Moon that slows down the rotation of the Earth and the oscillation of its axis.
The second group of factors are the constantly changing position of the continents on the surface of Earth. It depends on how much solar energy is absorbed by the surface. The location and position of the oceans, their currents, and circulation are directly related to the areas and position of the continents, which affects the composition and condition of the atmosphere, the distribution of heat, and the formation of glaciers.
The third group are the periodic change of the distance of Earth from the Sun (eccentricity of the orbit), its position, and inclination. As a result, the amount of solar energy heating the surface of Earth also fluctuates periodically. This is called the Milankovich cycle, which explains the recent changes in icing and interglacial periods.
The fourth group of factors are volcanic eruptions, asteroid blows, periodic fluctuations in the activities of Sun, as well as, its sudden changes, storms, various short-term ocean and atmospheric phenomena, and influence of humankind on the composition of the atmosphere.
Difficult to Make Predictions
The climate is determined by all these circumstances, and the change depends on a combination of the above-mentioned factors and many other natural forces. There may be cases where one cause inhibits or, conversely, makes another reaction as it is a chain reaction of change. We do not know how to anticipate such changes and scale in the future. As a result, some scientists are very reluctant to estimate global warming forecasts, even if based on computer models, interpreting global warming only as an increase in CO2, and this phenomenon is due to human activity. It is feared that such insufficiently substantiated and overly ambiguous provisions could lead to unnoticed real trends in climate change. One thing is clear: we need to know our Earth, its present and its past better.